By Adonia Agayan

YEREVAN, July 7 — Armenia should be prepared for unexpected war, according to Richard Giragosian, the director of the Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS).

He believes that Armenia should be ready for the worst-case scenario since Azerbaijan will keep testing the patience of the Armenian side.

Azerbaijan’s recent sabotage on the Nagorno Karabakh–Azerbaijani border was not a signal addressed to the Armenian side but to Washington and Ankara. “Azerbaijan feels offended, it’s also angry with Turkey thinking that Turkey has commended it, and feeling that it is not valued and respected by the US, it took this step,” Giragosian said.

Azerbaijan did everything possible at the threshold of the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to the South Caucasus to destabilize the situation in the region, thus showing its “grudge against Washington.”

Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan, keeps on using war rhetoric and does not deny the possibility of resolving the Nagorno Karabakh conflict by means of force.

“If Azerbaijan considers the peaceful process ineffective and prefers to solve the conflict by force, then the standards of international law will support our position since UN Charter Article 51 clearly states that every country has the right to self-defense. We want to resolve the conflict peacefully. We want to restore our territorial integrity in a peaceful manner  by means of negotiations. But that is not possible yet,” Aliyev said on Tuesday.

“The sudden resumption of hostilities is more dangerous than an official declaration of war by Azerbaijan,” Giragosian said. ”The situation may go beyond control as result of continuous Azeri provocations. However, official Baku should understand that it cannot deserve the respect of the international community by provoking war.”

According to Giragosian, Baku feels offended by the OSCE Minsk Group as well. “It wants to fail the OSCE Minsk Group format on the Karabakh conflict settlement,” he said.

Yerevan Report

Photo caption: Richard Giragosian