YEREVAN (RFE/RL), March 9—”The whole beauty of the document, discussed in the last five years in the Karabakh settlement lies in the fact that as a result of its implementation, Karabakh will receive an intermediate independence and security guarantees, while keeping hope of full independence in the future,” said British journalist Thomas de Waal on Tuesday during a discussion organized by the Civilitas Foundation in Yerevan.

Nevertheless, he believes that, despite the ongoing negotiating process, the conflict parties continue to maintain their former rigid positions. Regardless of the changes made from time to time in the document under discussion, they always return to the same circle.

In the case of conflicts in the Caucasus, de Waal is strongly against the use of the term “frozen.” According to him, the term “frozen” may be applied to the Cyprus issue. According to him, in the Caucasus there are “slumbering” conflicts, which remain a threat to renew hostilities at any time.

“Of course, I’m not saying that a war will begin soon in Karabakh. However, as it was the case with South Ossetia, the threat of renewal of a war exists,” he said.

To establish a stable and lasting peace in Karabakh, in de Waal’s opinion, it is necessary that the “chair” of settlement stands on four, rather than two “legs,” which is what is happening now. According to him, the two current “legs” are the negotiations between the presidents of the conflicting parties and the voluntary compliance with the ceasefire around the contact line of the conflict zone.

“However, this is not enough. There should be parallel with post-conflict planning, as was the case during the Balkan conflict,” de Waal said.

And, in the end, according to the expert, the fourth “leg” or element is the direct communication between people on the level of civil societies of the conflicting parties.

In this regard, de Waal, who was most recently in Baku, suggested that: “Official Baku has always had a very strong position. It also had a great suspicion in the communication between Armenians and Azerbaijanis at the societal level, believing that this way the existing status quo will become more strengthened,” he said.

“Meanwhile, during my last visit to Azerbaijan in this sense, I noticed some progress,” he said. He added that the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry today speaks more often of the need for communication between the two peoples.

According to de Waal, today it is necessary  that the parties, in particular Azerbaijan, finally, stop the military rhetoric and try to talk about common interests.

“The most positive message that I received from the visit to Baku is the fact that Baku is now more serious about the inter-societal relations,” de Waal said.

In response to the question of how the societies can begin a dialog in which each of them do not trust their own governments, de Waal mentioned that, in this sense, there are two prevalent opinions. Many argue that until the two societies do not succeed in developing democratic institutions, the conflict will not be settled. According to another point of view, democracy cannot develop until the conflict is resolved. Perhaps the process of integration into the EU to some extent, could be useful in the settlement. But it seems that the EU so far, “does not want to be fully involved in this conflicting region,” he said.

According to de Waal, the processes of settlement of the Karabakh conflict and that of Armenian-Turkish relations substantially differ from each other. The question of the Armenian-Turkish rapprochement, being itself complex, is nevertheless much easier. Turkey is a much more democratic country than Azerbaijan. In addition, there is no threat of renewal of a war, as in the case of Karabakh.

According to de Waal, it is also essential that Turkey has a particular interest in settling the issues with Armenia.

Copyright (c) 2010. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.

Translated from Russian by Yerevan Report

Photo caption: Thomas de Waal